Two realities shape American politics today.
The first is the reality we see every day in the news. It is shaped by the latest polls, the Washington and New York political class, and whatever controversy dominates the news cycle.
The second reality is deeper. It is shaped by what Americans actually believe, how they are changing, and where the country is moving over time.
Understanding the difference between these two realities is essential to understanding how Republicans can win a historic victory in 2026.
I learned this lesson firsthand in 2016. Two weeks before the election, I had a memorable exchange with Megyn Kelly about what I described as two different realities. Virtually the entire political establishment believed Hillary Clinton would win. The public polling seemed to reinforce that view. But beneath the conventional wisdom, signs suggested something very different was happening.
Early voting numbers in Florida and Pennsylvania and turnout patterns in Iowa suggested the race was not unfolding the way the political establishment thought it was. President Donald Trump ultimately carried all three states.
The lesson is not that Republicans should ignore polls or assume we are going to win. The lesson is that we must learn to distinguish between the frothy waves on the surface and the much larger political current moving underneath them.
Today, that current presents Republicans with an enormous opportunity. But recognizing an opportunity is not the same thing as winning an election.
First Win the Argument
Margaret Thatcher famously said, “First you win the argument, then you win the vote.”
That should be the Republican strategy for 2026.
Republicans will not win a historic victory by reacting to every controversy, chasing every news cycle, or turning the election into a referendum on whether Americans are satisfied with everything happening today.
We have to make this election a choice about the future. History tells us this can work.
I saw it in my first congressional victory in 1978. I saw it in George H.W. Bush’s remarkable comeback against Michael Dukakis in 1988. I saw it when we built the first Republican House majority in 40 years in 1994. And we saw it again when Donald Trump transformed a presidential campaign into the Make America Great Again movement.
Victory came from identifying a clear contrast, making a factual argument, and repeating it with discipline until the American people understood the choice. Republicans should approach 2026 with exactly the same determination.
The Four Building Blocks for Victory
Republicans must win four arguments.
First, we must define the Democratic Party as the party of big government socialism.
The modern Democratic Party is increasingly dominated by ideas that are far outside the American mainstream. Big government socialism does not create jobs, raise wages, prepare people for the future, or make Americans healthier. Republicans have to make the contrast clear.
Second, Republicans must offer a real plan for affordability and good jobs.
Americans are worried about the cost of health care, groceries, housing, and the basic necessities of everyday life. Republicans have to meet Americans where they are and offer practical solutions that lower costs, create good jobs, and increase take-home pay.
Third, Republicans should become the American Party.
For years, our America’s New Majority Project has studied issues that unite 70 percent, 80 percent, and sometimes 90 percent of Americans.
A potentially enormous governing majority is waiting to be organized around common-sense American ideas. Republicans should have the confidence to stand with that majority and force Democrats to defend positions supported by increasingly narrow parts of the country.
Fourth, Republicans need a new health-oriented approach to health care.
Nearly one-fifth of the American economy is tied to health care. We should be using new science, new technology, and new approaches to help Americans live longer, healthier lives while dramatically reducing the cost of care.
Becoming the party of a healthier America would improve the lives of every American while helping address one of the largest drivers of federal spending.
These are the four building blocks of a potentially historic Republican victory in 2026.
How to Win 2026
Republicans have spent too much of the modern era thinking like an embattled minority. That mindset produces small campaigns, tactical thinking, and a constant focus on surviving the next election.
The opportunity in 2026 is much bigger.
We can build a broad American majority around work, patriotism, entrepreneurial free enterprise, affordability, better health, and common-sense ideas supported by the overwhelming majority of Americans. But the political tide will not do the work for us.
We have to make the argument. We have to make it clearly, factually, and repeatedly. And then we have to win the vote.
Over the next four episodes of How to Win 2026, I will take each of these four building blocks in turn and lay out the facts, numbers, policies, and arguments Republicans need to make.
Because an argument this important deserves more than a slogan. It deserves the facts.
Listen to Episode 1 of How to Win 2026:
How to Win 2026 is part of a larger effort to identify the ideas, policies, and arguments that can create a lasting American majority.
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I'm looking forward to the details about this approach.