If the Midterm Elections Were Today, the Democrats Would Win
A Republican’s defeat in a district carried by Trump by 17 points is a warning to the GOP that a business-as-usual campaign will fail.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s victory over Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the Texas State Senate special election last Saturday is an important signal: If the midterm elections were today, the Democrats would win the House by a solid majority and might even win the Senate (although the second is harder to do).
This special election was in a district President Donald J. Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. There was a 31-point swing as the Democrat won by 14 points. Mr. Rehmet flipped the seat for the first time since 1992.
There was historically low turnout—some 200,000 fewer voters cast ballots Saturday than in the 2022 midterms. This was in part due to a snow storm, but there are broader issues with voter enthusiasm.
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