The Historic Turning Point in Iran
This is an historic turning point for the entire world.
The Iranian War is going differently than the Americans and the Israelis expected.
Without having the clearance for classified briefings, several things stand out to me in the news.
The Iranian dictatorship has been much more resilient than expected. It has a much deeper bench of people dedicated to its survival - and prepared to risk their lives and take a lot of infrastructure punishment to avoid defeat.
I am not sure anyone foresaw that when the dictatorship killed more than 30,000 demonstrators, it made it vastly harder to arouse people to try to replace the regime.
The Iranian dictatorship either has a lot more missiles than we thought, hidden production facilities we have not attacked, or both. The continuing bombardment of American allies has been a surprise. The two missiles that landed near the Israeli nuclear research center were a shock.
President Donald Trump was clearly right in warning that Iran was developing a missile capable of reaching all of Europe - and would seek to develop weapons capable of reaching the United States. The missiles fired 2,000 miles into the Indian Ocean could have reached Rome, Budapest, or Athens in Central Europe. The next level of development would reach Paris or London.
The Iranian dictatorship has apparently moved toward its hard liners in response to the US-Israel bombing campaign. The surviving leaders seem to be even more hardened in their opposition to the United States - and their willingness to kill dissidents. The continued hanging of protestors is a sign of how determined the leadership is to survive.
President Trump has moved from a 48-hour ultimatum to apply maximum force if the Strait of Hormuz is not open to a new five-day ceasefire on energy and oil facilities. He said there have been positive talks with the Iranian dictatorship. The dictatorship says there have been no talks.
Since the war started, my position has been that the end result must be a new Iranian government that has the support of its people.
Since the current leadership is completely dedicated to defeating the United States and Israel, it will be interesting to watch these five days of talks.
There is also the question of whether the Strait of Hormuz will be open during this period of negotiation. If the Strait will be open, it will be a minor victory for President Trump. If the Strait remains closed, it will be a significant victory for the Iranian dictatorship.
Of course, the Marine Expeditionary Force which left San Diego heading to the region will be that much closer at the end of the five days. The United States and Israel will also be rebuilding their ammunition stockpiles and doing necessary maintenance.
We know the Iranians are aggressive and belligerent in public. We do not know how shaken they are in private - or whether they are willing to engage in serious negotiations.
No one should relax.
The conditions which led President Trump to bomb Iran last year and resume bombing again this year are still in place.
None of us should kid ourselves about how dangerous the current standoff is - or how many different futures exist depending on President Trump’s resolve and the Iranian dictatorship’s depth of fanaticism.
I still believe anything short of dismantling the dictatorship simply gives them time to prepare for the next war. The lessons they have learned from the 2025 and 2026 campaigns would otherwise make them even more dangerous and difficult to defeat.
This is an historic turning point for the entire world.
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