It is amazing how quickly things can change after a big event.
Make no mistake about it, the Republican disaster last Tuesday was a really big event.
Prior to the collapse of the Republican candidates, I was routinely telling people that Vice President J.D. Vance was the most likely GOP nominee for 2028. Sitting vice presidents have huge advantages in the primary process. They have nationwide name recognition. They have spent three years cultivating the donor base, so they can build a bigger machine than their opponents. They have been standing next to the President for years, and while that may or may not help in the general election, it certainly helps with the party faithful.
For all those reasons, until Tuesday night, I would have said that Vice President Vance was the clear frontrunner by a big margin, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who has said he did not plan to run) second, and everyone else far behind.
Suddenly, the scale of Tuesday night’s disaster has opened up the entire nominating process.
Vice President Vance had endorsed, and indeed lectured the rest of us, about supporting the insane ad Vivek Ramaswamy ran using his opponent’s mother in attacking her own daughter. That was followed by an after-election post suggesting that our relationship with Israel was one of the four major reasons for the crushing defeat. None of the pollsters I talked with think this is true. It simply raises further questions about how close the vice president is to Tucker Carlson and the increasingly nutty nativist group who make a lot of noise but are increasingly unacceptable to most Republicans.
Meanwhile, Rubio’s star seems to keep rising. Part of the difference is style and delivery. Since I am living in Europe while Callista serves as U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein, I watch the strengths and weaknesses of different candidates from a unique forum. In these last two years, both Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio addressed the Munich Security Conference. The difference in their reception was stunning. They were both communicating President Donald J. Trump’s tough love message about the need for Europeans to change. However, the difference in their two styles made it possible for Rubio to have far more impact — and be warmly accepted despite his strong language.
Given the collapse of GOP strength, the administration will not be the only source of presidential candidates. Sen. Ted Cruz has been criss-crossing the country helping candidates and parties.
Govs. Brian Kemp and Ron DeSantis would make formidable candidates, although for the moment DeSantis says he is not running.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin left the Virginia governorship with a remarkable record of reform. He certainly has the kind of network which could sustain a presidential campaign if he decided to launch.
Somewhat longer shots would Sens. John Kennedy, Rick Scott, Ron Johnson, and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
If recent times have taught us anything, it’s that we live in an age of celebrity and social media. You just don’t know what will happen.
What I can tell you is that the disastrous results Tuesday night opened the gates to a lot more potential GOP candidates — and a much more open race than I would have thought.
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We're the elections rigged? I have serious doubts about the so called blue wave. We all know California elections are totally rigged. No one does anything about it. What about Texas? Am I to believe the odd turnout for a total freak case winning a Senate race and Governorship? If we don't make certain elections are fair-it won't matter who runs for office. My ticket: Rubio-DeSantis.
The more someone values their freedom over their life, the more likely they are to be free.