Newt Gingrich and pollster Rich Baris examine what the data reveals about Generation Z, economic frustration, socialism, and the political battle to reach young Americans.
For years, political analysts have tried to determine whether younger Americans are becoming more liberal or more conservative. Rich Baris believes they are asking the wrong question. His polling suggests a generation increasingly skeptical of political labels, distrustful of institutions, and frustrated by an economic system they believe makes it harder to get ahead. With home prices and rents dramatically outpacing gains in real earnings, Baris argues that the economic experience of younger Americans is fundamentally shaping their political worldview.
On this episode of Newt’s World, Newt Gingrich talks with Rich Baris, director of Big Data Poll and co-author of Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want, about what that frustration could mean for the future of American politics. Their conversation explores the growing appeal of socialism among Democratic voters, Donald Trump’s success with younger voters, the danger of grievance-driven politics, and why Republicans may have to offer something more powerful than opposition to the left. Baris argues that the winning alternative is a politics centered on economic opportunity, national renewal, and a credible belief that Americans who work hard can still build a better life.
Listen to their conversation below, or scroll down for an edited transcript
Edited Transcript
This conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Newt Gingrich
Rich, you and Josh open the book with an image you call “two movies on one screen,” the idea that Americans are living in radically different economic realities depending on when they were born. What exactly are these two movies, and why has the American experience become so different across generations?
Rich Baris
It comes down to life experience. People can be looking at the same thing and perceive completely different stories.
That chapter is an attempt to get both sides to understand why the other feels the way they do. Baby boomers had a very different economic experience and are now at a different place in their lives. Younger generations have experienced something radically different.
Millennials, for instance, entered adulthood around 9/11. Then, just as they began getting established in the workforce, the financial crisis happened. Many put their faith in Barack Obama and the promise of hope and change, but they became disappointed. Later, the economy began changing under President Trump, and then COVID hit.
Older generations were generally more secure in their economic position. Younger generations often feel as though they have repeatedly been pushed back to the starting line.
When we try to understand why people view the world differently, we often fail to take those experiences into account. We may be watching the same movie, but we are seeing it from completely different points of view.
Newt Gingrich
Historically, people accumulated wealth throughout their lives, so older people were always more likely to have money than younger people. Is the difference dramatically greater today?
Rich Baris
It is.
Younger people have to recognize that some generational wealth difference has always existed. But at the same time, the gap has widened significantly.
What it takes to own a house today is very different from what it took for previous generations. Younger generations are also carrying levels of debt we haven’t seen before.
It is important not to blame one generation for another generation’s circumstances. That isn’t productive, and it doesn’t help us find common ground.
The sooner we realize the problem isn’t between generations, but rather with aspects of the system itself, the sooner we can find areas where people agree and begin moving forward.
Newt Gingrich
You cite some staggering numbers. Since 2000, home prices have gone up 230 percent and rent 143 percent, while real weekly earnings have increased only around 13 percent. Given those facts, it’s not surprising people are angry.
Rich Baris
The numbers back up what younger generations are feeling.
They feel like they began from a different starting position. Before they even entered the workforce, many had already spent years digging a massive financial hole.
Then they hear people tell them, “You just have to work harder,” or criticize them for buying something like a $20 burrito instead of staying home and cooking.
What they’re trying to say is that their money simply doesn’t go as far as it did for previous generations. No matter how hard they work, it doesn’t have the same purchasing power.
The American work ethic is an important part of our identity and something we shouldn’t lose. But acknowledging that doesn’t mean their economic experience isn’t real.
Newt Gingrich
So there is a sense that no matter how hard you work, you’re not going to get ahead.
Rich Baris
Exactly.
That helps explain why younger Americans can become attracted to political messages that previously would have been considered radical.
After a while, if people feel like they’re beating their heads against the wall and not getting ahead, they begin looking for someone who at least speaks to their concerns.
Republicans have to be very careful about this. If younger voters feel like you’re not paying attention to their needs or grievances, they will start looking somewhere else.
Newt Gingrich
I recently received an email from somebody canvassing in Michigan. They were visiting mobile home communities that had been strongly pro-Trump and were startled to see signs for a radical Democrat.
The explanation seemed to be that this candidate was as angry about the status quo as Trump had been. Voters were looking for somebody who expressed their anger that the system isn’t working. I found that very sobering.
Rich Baris
That was part of Donald Trump’s political appeal that the political class had difficulty understanding.
They focused on his style and personality and missed the fact that he spoke directly to people’s needs and concerns.
There’s a great divide between the ruling class in Washington and the rest of the country. We’ve talked about it for years, but economic frustration is reaching a point where it is beginning to boil over.
Elections can serve as a way to depressurize society. But when election after election comes and people’s grievances still aren’t addressed, that pressure continues to build.
Ultimately, this comes down to the cost of living. Republicans need to focus on that like a laser beam.
For many voters, words such as “socialism” and “communism” simply aren’t as frightening as the prospect of being unable to meet their basic needs or build wealth.
Newt Gingrich
Some conservative analysts argue that younger Americans, particularly Generation Z, are more conservative than we think. Your polling doesn’t really show that. What’s the actual story?
Rich Baris
It doesn’t show that.
There are some encouraging signs for the right in areas such as religiosity and church attendance among portions of Generation Z. But the broader trend is different.
A growing number of younger voters identify themselves as moderates. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re moderate by traditional ideological standards.
It often means they reject labels and institutions. They don’t want to call themselves liberal because they associate that with Democrats and the left, and they don’t want to call themselves conservative because they associate that with Republicans and the right.
So they choose “moderate.”
But many of them still hold views that would traditionally be considered quite radical.
Newt Gingrich
There is also a growing sense that the country is unhappy and that, despite efforts to change things, we haven’t really turned a corner on that unhappiness. Does that fit what you’re seeing?
Rich Baris
It does.
I don’t think it’s fair to put everything on one person or one president. I think this is ultimately about the system itself.
Younger Americans wanted a radical change in the trajectory of society and government. Many put faith in institutions and then felt those institutions let them down.
Economics plays an enormous role. People are happier when they feel things are going well, when they can meet their needs, and when they believe the rules allow them to work hard and get ahead.
Money may not buy happiness, but it can remove the stress of constantly worrying about whether you can meet your basic needs.
Newt Gingrich
You and Josh coined the term “ledger politics” for one of the darker roads America could take, a politics built around keeping score of grievances. Walk us through that.
Rich Baris
The book essentially argues that there are two competing roads.
One is based on national renewal and economic prosperity, the idea that a rising tide can lift all boats.
The other is based on grievances.
When the promises of left-wing populism fail, somebody has to be blamed. You begin creating lists of grievances and identifying groups within society that supposedly caused your problems.
If you can’t meet your needs, it’s their fault. If trade policy isn’t benefiting you, it’s their fault. If there are racial tensions, it’s somebody else’s fault.
Those grievances accumulate, and eventually that becomes destabilizing for society.
The question is which road Americans will choose.
Newt Gingrich
One of the clearest examples right now is the growth of the Democratic Socialists of America. Bernie Sanders’ open advocacy of socialism has become dramatically more acceptable on the left.
What does your polling show?
Rich Baris
In 2020, before Super Tuesday, we asked Democratic primary voters whether they identified as Democratic socialists, traditional liberals, or socialists.
At the time, about 40 percent called themselves Democratic socialists.
As of roughly September 2026, the combined number identifying with some form of socialism is around two-thirds. Between 52 and 55 percent call themselves Democratic socialists, with another roughly 10 percent calling themselves socialists.
Traditional liberals are typically only around 12 to 15 percent.
That’s a huge transformation, and it raises an important question about the future of the Democratic Party.
Newt Gingrich
If the change is that significant, how do leaders such as Chuck Schumer in the Senate and Hakeem Jeffries in the House govern a party that has moved that far to the left?
Rich Baris
I’m not sure they can over the long term.
The Democratic establishment still has considerable power, and groups such as the DSA don’t yet have enough votes or financial resources to take over the party.
But little by little, over the next five to 10 years, I think the establishment wing is likely to lose that fight.
There are still major disagreements within the coalition, including economic policy and Israel, and those divisions involve significant donors and institutional power.
But ultimately, voters have a tendency to force political parties to respond to them. We saw that happen when Republican voters forced the party to accept Donald Trump.
If Democratic leaders don’t respond to what their voters want, their voters may eventually force the change as well.
Newt Gingrich
Socialism has historically produced disastrous results, yet it keeps returning as an attractive alternative. Why?
Rich Baris
There are several reasons.
First, the left has been very effective at rebranding it. “Democratic socialism” itself has been an enormously successful political rebrand.
Second, advocates can point toward European countries and argue that their systems work, without necessarily acknowledging the larger context surrounding those systems.
But the third reason may be the most important today.
People feel that government and institutions aren’t addressing their basic needs. When people are angry, dissatisfied, or desperate, political movements that promise to address those frustrations become much more attractive.
Younger generations also weren’t taught to fear socialism in the way previous generations were. They don’t automatically see the word as representing a catastrophic economic system.
Even when some understand the risks, their frustration with the current system can outweigh those concerns.
Newt Gingrich
Can the Democratic Socialists of America make the transition from a protest movement into a governing force inside the Democratic Party?
Rich Baris
Not in the immediate future.
The Democratic establishment still has too much power, and the DSA doesn’t yet have the financial resources it would need.
But over five to 10 years, I think it’s possible.
If the establishment repeatedly fails to deliver what these voters want, the voters themselves will eventually force the party to change.
Newt Gingrich
Looking at this year’s election, could anger over the cost of living overwhelm the traditional Republican argument against socialism?
If Republicans are talking about the dangers of socialism while Democrats are telling voters they shouldn’t have to pay so much for food, which argument wins?
Rich Baris
That may be the question of this election cycle.
You can’t reteach people an entire political philosophy in a few weeks. Republicans have to meet people’s needs.
Parents are worried about groceries, back-to-school supplies, clothing for their children, car payments, mortgages, and basic household bills.
It’s going to be very difficult to persuade somebody with an ideological argument when they’re worried about paying their bills.
Republicans have to speak directly to those needs. If they don’t, the anger could overwhelm them.
The larger ideological fight has to take place over the long term. Right now, voters need to hear how you’re going to improve their lives.
Newt Gingrich
You write that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. What is the current rhyme?
Rich Baris
Donald Trump was, in many ways, a reaction to Barack Obama.
Obama came into office promising hope, change, and a different path. When voters felt that promise wasn’t fulfilled, the country eventually turned to Donald Trump.
We could see the equivalent happen in the other direction.
If the right doesn’t rise to the occasion and address people’s needs, voters could eventually turn toward a much more radical left-wing figure.
Think about the voters who once supported Obama and later supported Trump. Iowa used to be difficult for Republicans. Ohio was once the quintessential battleground state. Donald Trump changed that political map.
The warning to Republicans is simple: Don’t assume the same kind of transformation couldn’t happen to you.
History rhymes.
Newt Gingrich
You also talk about “ladder politics.” What do you mean by that?
Rich Baris
At the core is the idea that political change happens as people move through a process.
One generation feels like it has gone through that political and economic maturation process and climbed the ladder.
Another feels like it can’t even get onto the first rung.
Until people believe they have an opportunity to climb that ladder, we’re going to continue seeing these dramatic political swings.
Newt Gingrich
You warn that Republicans aren’t going to be able to “out-resent” the left. What does that mean?
Rich Baris
People on the right generally want to live their lives in an environment where government works, the economy works, and they have an opportunity to succeed.
Resentment politics fits the worldview of the left differently. When the right tries to imitate it, it often becomes a process of purification through subtraction rather than coalition building.
The right can’t beat the left at its own game.
Newt Gingrich
Does the right, in that sense, have to offer hope where the left offers anger?
Rich Baris
Exactly.
The right is at its best when it is true to itself and looks toward national revival and lifting everybody up.
Donald Trump’s 2024 coalition was impressive among younger and nonwhite voters because that message felt authentic to them.
When I see a Republican increasing support in urban communities while still dominating rural areas, I don’t simply see it as a partisan shift. I see somebody finding greater consensus in society.
When there is more consensus and fewer enormous divides between rural and urban Americans, or Black, white, Hispanic, and Asian Americans, you create a more stable society.
That’s the opportunity for the right: offer something positive, believable, and unifying.
Newt Gingrich
Your new book, Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want, is an important book for understanding this particular moment in history and particularly important for Republicans trying to understand the challenges they face.
Rich, thank you for joining me.
Rich Baris
Thanks for having me, Mr. Speaker. It was an honor.
About the Guest
Rich Baris is the director of Big Data Poll and host of Inside the Numbers with the People’s Pundit. He was the only national and state pollster to correctly forecast Donald Trump’s 306 electoral votes in 2016 and was recognized as one of the most accurate national pollsters of the 2024 election. His analysis has appeared in RealClearPolitics, Fox News, Newsmax, The Hill, Decision Desk HQ, and Real America’s Voice.
Baris is the co-author, with Joshua Lisec, of Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want, which examines polling and research on Generation Z, political identity, economic frustration, and the future of American politics. The book is scheduled for release September 22.
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