John McLaughlin and Doug Sosnik join Newt Gingrich to Examine the Polls, Voter Turnout, and the Battle for Congress.
With just 27 days until the 2026 midterm elections, early voting is underway, Democrats are gaining ground in national polling, and control of Congress remains uncertain. But do the latest numbers reveal an inevitable Democratic victory, or is there still time for Republicans to change the outcome? On this episode of Newt’s World, 50th Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich brings together two veteran political strategists from opposite sides of the aisle: John McLaughlin, President Donald Trump's longtime pollster, and Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House. Drawing on decades of campaign experience, including the historic Republican victories of 1994 and 2010, they examine what the polls are actually measuring, which voters are motivated to participate, and why the final weeks of a campaign can change everything.
The conversation goes beyond the latest polling averages to explore the issues shaping voter sentiment, from affordability and rising energy prices to the war with Iran and the effectiveness of each party's political message. Sosnik argues that Democrats have gained a significant advantage as dissatisfaction with the economy and President Trump drives voter engagement. McLaughlin maintains that Republicans remain competitive but must do a better job defining their opponents and communicating their policy agenda. Gingrich challenges both strategists on the lessons of past elections, the importance of a clear governing message, and the difference between winning the House and controlling the Senate. As all three consider what November could mean for the country, one question remains: Are voters making a final judgment on the Trump presidency, or is the political landscape about to shift again?
Listen to their conversation below, or scroll down for an edited transcript.
Edited Transcript
This conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Newt Gingrich
We’re now 27 days from the 2026 midterm elections, and the election has already started. Mail-in voting is underway in two dozen states, and voters can cast ballots in person in 13 states.
The polls are moving. Since the start of September, the generic ballot has shifted several points toward the Democrats, and prediction markets now give Democrats roughly a 90% chance of winning the House.
But my new America’s New Majority Project survey tells a more complicated story. The ballot has barely moved since spring, and a lot of Republican voters are still up for grabs. In a midterm, when only about half of registered voters cast their votes, the winner is whoever motivates turnout.
I remember 1994 very well. I know what a wave looks like, and I know that a month is a long time in politics.
Doug, you have a new memo which says there’s been a noticeable shift toward Democrats since early September. What do you think happened?
Doug Sosnik
Every election cycle has a key moment, an inflection point that sets the stage for the final results.
Going back to 1994, when you orchestrated the first Republican takeover of the House since the early 1950s, I think the gun vote in August was the tipping point.
In this election, history tells us this was never supposed to be a great cycle for Republicans. But I think the key inflection point was the decision at the end of February to go into Iran.
By the end of August, the movement away from peace and the increase in prices became a catalytic event. In early September, the slow, steady decline of Republican candidates reached a new level.
Newt Gingrich
John, your numbers tell a slightly different story. What’s your sense?
John McLaughlin
It’s still a very competitive election.
Where I disagree with Doug is not so much the decision to go into Iran, because Trump’s base was solidly behind him in stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
I think the inflection point was the ceasefire, when they pulled back without getting what they wanted from the Iranians.
But the real point of the midterms is that you’re supposed to have a debate between yourself and the other party. Republicans have not played offense in this election.
In our latest national poll of 8,000 likely voters, Republicans were down five points on the generic ballot. But when we asked whether voters would support a free-market capitalist Republican against a big-government socialist Democrat, Republicans led 45% to 41%.
That advantage has narrowed. The opposition to Trump is coming together, and Republicans aren’t making enough inroads among independents.
Doug Sosnik
I agree that Trump’s base has stuck with him and that most of the candidates he endorsed won their Republican primaries.
But that’s the problem. The people sticking with Trump are largely his hardcore base.
He got elected in large part because of the economy and his promise not to get into endless wars. Now Republicans face a difficult situation. Trump’s popularity has historically been difficult to transfer to other candidates when he’s not on the ballot, while opposition to him is motivating Democrats.
Newt Gingrich
In a sense, he’s almost energized his opponents more than he’s energized his friends.
John mentioned that big government socialism was working for Republicans, but it’s gradually being normalized because people are so angry about Trump that they’ll accept language they might not have accepted six months ago.
John McLaughlin
We should never have conceded affordability to anybody who wants to raise taxes.
Republicans should have developed a scorecard on the issues, just as Trump had a specific platform when he ran.
We’ve allowed Democrats to run against Donald Trump without outlining the issues.
I don’t think you do it simply by calling people communists. That doesn’t mean anything to a voter born after 1989.
I think big government resonates more than socialism. Younger voters may think socialism sounds fair, but when they hear about big government, their reaction changes.
You have to define the agenda. You have to define the debate.
Republicans haven’t done a good enough job explaining where they differ from Democrats.
Doug Sosnik
The big failure, and it’s inexplicable to me, is why Republicans didn’t sell their major tax and spending legislation from day one.
There’s also a contradiction in arguing against big government when the administration has increased spending.
The 2017 tax cut was a much greater economic stimulus than the most recent tax cut. There’s no comparison.
John McLaughlin
I don’t disagree. I think there should have been a second tax cut, but there also needed to be spending reform.
If you don’t cut waste, fraud, and abuse, you’re not addressing the underlying problem.
Newt Gingrich
One of the problems of this administration is that they do so many things they can’t communicate anything, because there’s always the next story.
I was fortunate to spend the early years of my congressional career with Ronald Reagan. There was a disciplined rhythm to Reagan. He had a real sense of how many things you could get done, how you focused on the ones that mattered, and how you avoided getting diverted.
Doug Sosnik
We couldn’t figure out why we lost so badly in 1994 because we had accomplished so much.
We did a series of focus groups and discovered that the fault was on our end. We had accomplished a lot, but we had never communicated a coherent narrative about what we were doing, why we were doing it, and how the American public would benefit.
So we changed how we operated. We used the Reagan White House as a model. We developed a narrative, and we stuck to it.
That’s what’s missing today. There’s no consistent narrative or strategy. It’s all tactics and winning the news cycle.
Newt Gingrich
It strikes me that Republicans either had to do something dramatic to reduce the cost of living or win the argument that we’re gradually recovering from the Biden years. They didn’t do either one.
Doug, is affordability the overriding issue of this election?
Doug Sosnik
One hundred percent.
If you look at the polling and ask voters who they blame for the current state of the economy, they blame Trump over Biden by about two to one.
The last five midterms have resulted in the party in power losing at least one chamber of Congress. So this was always supposed to be a difficult cycle for Republicans.
But structural changes in American politics gave Republicans some insulation against the kind of Democratic wave we might have seen a generation ago.
Republicans have advantages from the distribution of Senate seats and redistricting. Those barriers still exist, although they’re not as strong as they appeared earlier this year.
Newt Gingrich
Do you think reapportionment and redistricting collectively minimize the danger of a traditional wave?
Doug Sosnik
I think Republicans will have a marginal gain in the House due to redistricting, but not very much.
At the beginning of the year, I might have predicted a double-digit gain. Now I think the net advantage will be negligible.
Newt Gingrich
Do you see the Senate as less in danger than the House?
Doug Sosnik
The House is clearly a better opportunity for Democrats.
Looking at the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. I think North Carolina is pretty much in the Democratic column, but then we have to hold our existing seats and win three states that Trump carried by more than 11 points.
That’s a tall order.
John McLaughlin
I agree with Doug about the structural advantages in the Senate.
I remember September 1994 when I delivered polling to the Republican House leadership. We were up seven points on the generic ballot. I’d never seen that kind of advantage for Republicans.
But we also had a message. Newt and his team had carefully outlined the Contract with America, and Republican candidates had signed on.
It was a wave, and it was coming.
In 2002, we had a different dynamic after September 11. There was a sense of national unity, and tax cuts helped grow the economy.
This year, we had the potential with America 250 to create that sense of patriotism and unity again.
But Republicans didn’t communicate the tax cuts effectively, and they didn’t follow through with enough spending reform.
My latest polling still has Republicans down five points on the generic ballot. That’s close enough that you can close the gap in four weeks.
Doug Sosnik
I think another important question is what Trump will do during the final weeks.
There are places where he could campaign and help Republican turnout. But there are other districts where his presence could hurt the Republican candidate.
I remember 1994 when President Clinton was sometimes more helpful to Democrats by staying away from certain races.
The president’s involvement has to be considered district by district.
Newt Gingrich
That’s part of the power of the presidency.
When Trump goes somewhere and announces something practical, such as a major steel mill that could help a local economy, he has a reason to be there that people can understand.
If he has something that makes people feel better about their future, he can go almost anywhere.
Doug Sosnik
Recent polling in traditionally Republican states shows significant dissatisfaction with the president’s handling of the economy, cost of living, and gas prices.
Those are serious warning signs for Republicans, even in states Trump carried comfortably.
John McLaughlin
I have concerns about some of the polling methodology and whether Trump voters are being adequately represented.
But the fundamental problem remains that Republicans are playing defense rather than offense.
There’s not enough information reaching voters about where Democrats stand on taxes, spending, and other issues.
Four weeks out, Republicans still need to define the differences between the candidates.
Newt Gingrich
John, I mostly agree with you, but I wonder whether people can get so angry that they simply stop caring about the alternative.
They might say they’re going to vote a certain way because they’re so frustrated that nothing you tell them will change their minds.
John McLaughlin
I think a lot of the success of more progressive Democratic candidates is a reaction to Trump himself.
Democratic voters oppose him personally and on policy, and that has energized their primaries.
Without Republicans advancing a clear agenda, moderate Democrats are willing to support candidates they might otherwise question because they’re united in opposition to Trump.
Doug Sosnik
I think the political environment matters more than the cleverness of an individual campaign advertisement.
Consultants might move the needle a couple of points in a close race, but the broader national mood determines most election outcomes.
Candidate quality also matters. Democrats have recruited strong candidates in several competitive Senate states, while Republicans have weaknesses in some important races.
I think Democrats will have a very good year. I think we’ll take back the House, and I think the Senate is fifty-fifty.
But that tells you nothing about 2028.
The two biggest Republican midterm victories since World War II were 1994 and 2010. In both cases, Republicans lost the presidential election two years later.
The 2028 election will have a completely different electorate and political environment.
Newt Gingrich
One of the amazing things about the American system is that it just keeps going.
You had Clinton’s victory in 1992, the Republican wave in 1994, and Clinton’s comeback in 1996.
I’ve been studying politics for a long time, and I have two firm rules. Polls are interesting, but show me the first precincts that actually vote.
As a historian, I’m pretty good at explaining what happened after it happens. Predicting the future is much harder.
John McLaughlin
I was honored to work with you in 1994, Newt.
And I’ve always wanted to hear more about how you and Doug helped Bill Clinton get reelected in 1996.
Newt Gingrich
I think we did help him.
Clinton made a key decision that he was going to work with us. We balanced the budget for four straight years and passed welfare reform.
I remember sitting behind him when he said, “The era of big government is over.”
I knew exactly what he was doing politically, but what could I do? I had to stand and applaud.
Doug Sosnik
For what it’s worth, all of us in the West Wing opposed those efforts to work together with Newt.
We’ve lived in the age of Trump since he came down that escalator. He’s been the dominant force in American politics.
I think the 2028 election will be a generational change, similar in some ways to 1960 when John Kennedy came in.
The question will be: What is America going to be after Trump?
The debate during 2027 and 2028 will help determine how the country is governed beginning in 2029.
Newt Gingrich
My contribution to that conversation is a new book, America’s Golden Age, looking ahead to 2076 and the 300th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
Barring a nuclear war, I believe we’ll be amazingly better off by 2076. It’ll be astonishing.
John McLaughlin
Even though Trump can’t run again, the voters who elected him are still there.
That coalition still exists, and those voters will help decide the next election.
Doug Sosnik
The question is whether the Trump movement is transferable to someone else.
We’ve seen major political movements built around Reagan and Obama. Some endured longer than others, but transferring that political energy to a successor is never guaranteed.
That’s one of the biggest questions heading into 2028.
Newt Gingrich
I hope the three of us can continue this discussion over the next few years as the American people sort out what they want.
John and Doug, thank you both for joining me.
I hope listeners will explore John’s September national poll, the America’s New Majority Project research, and Doug’s latest analysis, including his column The Age After Trump.
This conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
About the Guest
John McLaughlin is CEO and partner of McLaughlin & Associates, a national survey research and strategic services firm. With more than 35 years of experience, he has advised President Donald Trump since his 2016 campaign, along with numerous governors, members of Congress, and international political leaders.
Doug Sosnik served six years as a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton, including as White House political director. Over more than three decades, he has advised over 50 U.S. senators and governors, as well as major organizations. He is co-author of Applebee's America and publishes political analysis on Substack.
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