The two hardest challenges Republicans face in the 2026 campaign are the economy and the war with Iran.
Both are real. Both directly affect how Americans think about their future. And both could become major threats to Republican victory if we fail to address them honestly and effectively.
In Episode 3 of my five-part How to Win 2026 series, I outline what I believe is a demanding but achievable strategy for dealing with both.
Affordability remains a real problem for millions of Americans. Inflation has come down from its peak, but families are still feeling the accumulated impact of higher prices. The labor market has softened. Too many Americans remain worried about their jobs, their bills, and their financial futures.
Republicans cannot simply tell people the economy is improving and expect them to ignore what they experience every day.
We have to acknowledge the problem, show what we are doing to solve it, and explain why our solutions will work better than the alternative.
Affordability Is Real
History tells us what happens when the party in power fails to address the problems dominating people’s lives. In 2010, Republicans ran a disciplined campaign around a simple question: “Where are the jobs?”
Combined with opposition to the Obama administration and the Pelosi speakership, frustration with the economy helped Republicans gain 63 House seats, the largest loss by a White House party since 1938. Republicans should learn from that experience.
If we drift into September and October without clear answers on affordability and the economy, we risk allowing frustration to overwhelm every other advantage we have built.
The answer is not to pretend the problem does not exist. The answer is to solve it and explain what we are doing.
Show Americans What Is Already Changing
President Trump and Republicans have already taken a series of steps designed to lower costs, encourage investment, increase take-home pay, and rebuild economic growth.
Health care is also part of the affordability challenge, with the administration pursuing greater price transparency and Republicans expanding the flexibility of Health Savings Accounts.
Prescription drug prices provide one of the clearest examples.
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited in the episode, prescription drug prices have fallen every month of 2026 and were down 3.9 percent since President Trump took office. The year-over-year decline in July was the steepest annual drop in more than 60 years.
Several factors contributed to this progress, including the administration’s Most Favored Nation pricing agreements, TrumpRx, and Medicare drug-price negotiations that began under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act.
The results are becoming tangible. GLP-1 medications that once cost more than $1,000 per month can now start at $149 through TrumpRx. Prices for insulin, inhalers, fertility drugs, and cholesterol medications have also fallen substantially.
These are the kinds of specific examples Republicans need to communicate. We should not ask Americans to memorize a slogan. We should give them the facts they need to explain what is changing at their own kitchen tables and in their own communities.
More Money in Americans’ Pockets
The Working Families Tax Cuts, also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, prevented a looming tax increase of roughly $1,700 per family and created no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, additional relief for seniors, a new deduction for interest on qualifying American-made car loans, and a larger Child Tax Credit.
Those changes are already becoming visible.
American families and workers claimed roughly $82 billion in new individual tax relief through the April 15 filing deadline. Nearly eight million workers claimed the tips deduction. More than 29 million claimed the overtime deduction. More than 35 million seniors benefited from the enhanced senior deduction, and the average federal refund was more than $3,400.
Republicans also made the 20 percent small-business deduction permanent, restored immediate write-offs for research, equipment, and factory construction, and expanded 529 accounts so skilled trades and vocational training receive the same favorable tax treatment as traditional four-year education.
These are concrete examples of a broader affordability strategy: letting Americans keep more of what they earn, encouraging investment and production, and helping families save and build assets.
Republicans are also working on the costs that families face beyond taxes. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is aimed at expanding housing supply and reducing barriers to homebuilding. The administration has moved to reduce costly regulations and protect Americans’ right to repair their own vehicles and equipment. House Republicans have also proposed energy and permitting reforms designed to expand infrastructure without forcing ordinary families to subsidize the enormous power needs of new data centers.
Three Arguments Republicans Must Win
Ultimately, Republicans have to win three arguments about the economy.
First, which party’s philosophy and policies are more likely to create prosperity for you, your family, and the country?
Second, which policies are causing Americans to move from one state to another in search of lower taxes, greater opportunity, and more take-home pay?
Third, what kind of country do we want to live in: a free-market, entrepreneurial system in which Americans are customers and citizens, or a government-controlled bureaucratic system in which people increasingly become clients dependent on politicians and government agencies?
These questions expose the fundamental difference between free enterprise and big government socialism.
Our America’s New Majority Project found that voters preferred free-market capitalism to big government socialism by 45 percent to 10 percent.
Another 81 percent of Americans said they simply cannot afford higher taxes, while 72 percent supported saving an estimated $1.6 trillion over 10 years by eliminating waste and fraud from existing government programs.
That is not a country demanding more government. It is a country demanding that government work better.
The Challenge of Iran
The second difficult argument Republicans must address is Iran.
Here again, honesty is essential.
The conflict has not gone the way we hoped. The Iranian dictatorship has proven more ruthless and more willing to endure American pressure than many expected.
But the underlying danger has not disappeared.
The Iranian regime continues to represent a serious threat to the United States, our allies, and stability in the region. At the same time, there should be no circumstances in which we put American ground forces into a country roughly twice the size of Texas with a population approaching 90 million people.
Instead, we may need a longer-term strategy that economically undermines the dictatorship, strengthens Iranians who want freedom, protects our allies, and reduces Tehran’s ability to threaten the world economy through the Strait of Hormuz.
The American people deserve an honest discussion about the difficulty of this challenge and the consequences of allowing a hostile Iranian dictatorship to acquire nuclear weapons.
There are no easy answers. However, we have an obligation to protect America.
Respect the American People
There is a larger principle behind both arguments.
Leaders in a free society have to respect voters enough to communicate with them as adults.
We should acknowledge when problems are real. We should be honest when progress is slower than we hoped. We should explain what has already been accomplished, what remains to be done, and why our approach is more likely to succeed.
Abraham Lincoln said, “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed.”
Margaret Thatcher put the political challenge even more simply: First you win the argument. Then you win the vote.
That is precisely what Republicans have to do in 2026.
If we can convince Americans that we understand their concerns about affordability, that we are taking real steps to improve their lives, and that our solutions are more likely to work than big government socialism, the economic challenge becomes much less politically damaging.
And if we can have an equally serious conversation about Iran and America’s national security, we can win one of the most difficult arguments of this election.
These may be the two hardest issues Republicans face this fall.
They are also two arguments we cannot afford to lose.
Listen to Episode 3 of How to Win 2026:
The Republican Opportunity
How to Win 2026 is part of a larger effort to identify the ideas, policies, and arguments that can create a lasting American majority.
Explore our latest columns, research, commentary, and analysis on the Republican Opportunity in 2026.
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Thank you, Newt for these podcasts. It is enormously helpful to have a growing list of Trump accomplishments that make a big difference in everyday lives, as pushback against the relentless hate and condemnation from the left wing press and people I interact with every day.
Some Democrat voters will never switch, but there are a lot of folks who are simply unaware of things Trump has done that already benefits the country because they're so dependent on news sources that refuse to report the good stuff and continually bad-mouth anything Trump says or does.
As you say, the Trump accomplishments have to be broadcast repeatedly, and explicitly contrasted to what Democrats are giving us - ie, relentless hatred toward the current administration and no policies that would improve conditions for average people.