Newt Gingrich and Matt Towery Examine Media Bias, Political Polling, and the Seven Mirages Shaping American Politics
With the 2026 midterm elections upon us, I want to draw your attention to Substack’s Midterms Hub. The hub brings together updates, election results, commentary, and analysis from writers across Substack, including my own observations on the key races and what the results mean for America’s future.
As Americans head to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections, how much of what they believe about politics is based on reality, and how much has been shaped by the information they consume? Political analyst, pollster, and author Matt Towery joins Newt Gingrich to examine what he calls the “mirage machine,” a combination of media narratives, polling, and fact-checking that he argues has distorted public perceptions of President Donald Trump and the issues facing the country. Drawing from his new book, The Honoring of Ignorance: The Seven Mirages Destroying America, Towery explores how selective reporting, political messaging, and changing media habits influence public opinion and why he believes Americans are increasingly disconnected from important facts.
The conversation also offers a candid look at the 2026 midterms, including Towery’s concerns about early voting trends, independent voters, and the challenges Republicans face in communicating their message. Towery reflects on his 2014 prediction that Donald Trump could win the presidency, acknowledges where his polling went wrong in 2022, and explains why he fears America's political divisions could eventually threaten national unity. Together, Gingrich and Towery consider whether a return to constitutional principles, stronger civic education, and more effective communication could help bridge the growing divide.
Listen to their conversation below, or scroll down for an edited transcript.
Edited Transcript
This conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Newt Gingrich
On November 3, Americans vote in the 2026 midterm elections, and many will vote based on a picture of reality that someone else painted for them.
My guest today calls that picture a mirage. He argues that the media, so-called fact-checkers, and even pollsters have built what he calls the “mirage machine.”
Matt Towery is one of my oldest friends and one of the sharpest pollsters in the country. He chaired my political organization in the 1990s, and in 2014, he wrote a column explaining why Donald Trump could win the presidency.
His new book is The Honoring of Ignorance: The Seven Mirages Destroying America.
Matt, let’s start with the title. What do you mean by “the honoring of ignorance”?
Matt Towery
I actually started working on this book more than 40 years ago, when I was at Cambridge. It was the early 1980s, and I could already see how the media was beginning to change.
We were seeing more infotainment, and I was concerned that we would lose our grip on real news and our understanding of what was happening in the country.
I found a literary agent, and every publisher gave us essentially the same response: They loved the concept, but I was too young to write it.
Now I’m 67, and I’ve finally written it.
What I describe is the “mirage machine.” It’s a combination of media organizations that omit facts or present information selectively, pollsters who reinforce those narratives, and fact-checkers who validate them.
We have become a country that places enormous value on the shiny object rather than the information that really matters.
Being ignorant doesn’t mean you’re stupid. It simply means you don’t know. And increasingly, Americans are being presented with information that doesn’t give them an accurate understanding of what’s happening.
Newt Gingrich
To what degree does the mirage machine make it harder for us to deal with real problems?
Matt Towery
It makes it almost impossible.
I’ve argued that conservatives and Republicans need to find a way to communicate directly with the American people every week, not simply during election season.
We need something like an “in case you missed it” version of the news that presents information people might otherwise never see.
The problem is that Republicans often wait until September, October, or November to begin communicating. By then, political advertising is everywhere, and people have tuned it out.
We need a full-time educational effort that keeps Americans informed throughout the year.
Newt Gingrich
So, from your perspective, this is largely an information fight?
Matt Towery
Absolutely.
Republicans spend too much time complaining that the networks won’t carry their message. Instead of complaining, they need to find ways around those networks.
You can’t wait until the last few weeks of an election to educate voters about what’s happening in the country.
By then, people are overwhelmed with advertisements and don’t know what to believe.
Newt Gingrich
You’ve consistently been among the most accurate pollsters, along with Trafalgar, with the exception of 2022. What happened that year?
Matt Towery
We made a mistake in how we estimated turnout.
The generic ballot suggested Republicans were ahead, and virtually everyone expected a red wave. When we weighted our polls, we assumed Republican turnout would be stronger than it ultimately was.
We didn’t miss by enormous margins, but we missed enough that several candidates we expected to win ended up losing.
There were also circumstances involving campaign funding that affected individual races.
But ultimately, pollsters have to take responsibility for their predictions. And 2022 was not a happy year for me.
Newt Gingrich
Let’s go back to a happier time. In December 2014, you wrote a column about why Donald Trump could win the presidency. That’s remarkable considering how few people took the possibility seriously.
What did you see that others didn’t?
Matt Towery
I thought the country was ready for something completely different.
Trump certainly was different. He had the financial resources, name recognition, and ability to communicate with people Republicans weren’t traditionally reaching.
I also recognized that what he was saying resonated with working Americans.
I wasn’t predicting that he would definitely win. I was saying he could win, which was a very different proposition at the time.
A couple of days after the column appeared, Chris Ruddy called to tell me that Donald Trump had shared it on Twitter.
Newt Gingrich
Your book examines several mirages surrounding President Trump, including claims that he’s ignorant, racist, xenophobic, and a fascist.
How do you distinguish those narratives from reality?
Matt Towery
The first is the idea that Trump and his supporters are somehow uninformed or unintelligent.
I believe many of his supporters are among the most engaged people in American politics.
Then there’s the accusation of racism, which I examine through the Charlottesville controversy and how Trump’s remarks were reported.
I also examine accusations of xenophobia and how statements about immigration were interpreted.
My argument is that these narratives are repeated so frequently that they become accepted as fact, even when people haven’t examined the original context.
The process continues through media coverage, books, and increasingly artificial intelligence.
Newt Gingrich
Yet somehow Trump manages to communicate directly with Americans despite the enormous opposition he faces. How does he do that?
Matt Towery
I think he’s doing something similar to what you did in the 1980s and 1990s.
You used C-SPAN and the GOPAC tapes to reach Americans directly and build a national movement.
Trump has used social media, his public appearances, and his ability to entertain an audience to accomplish something similar.
Politics today requires an ability to capture people’s attention.
Trump understands that. He knows how to use dramatic language and entertainment to communicate his message.
But Republicans as a party haven’t fully learned that lesson.
Newt Gingrich
I’ve found throughout my career that Republicans, with a few notable exceptions, have struggled to communicate effectively.
Matt Towery
One problem is that too much of the political consulting industry focuses on spending money before developing the message.
The message should come first.
Republicans also need to recognize that they can use reporting from organizations that aren’t politically sympathetic to them.
If CNBC, Bloomberg, or Yahoo News reports positive economic developments, why not share that reporting directly with voters?
It would be a much more effective way to communicate information that Americans might otherwise miss.
Newt Gingrich
You also raise a concern that goes beyond politics. You suggest America could be headed toward a kind of national separation.
What do you mean by that, and what can we do about it?
Matt Towery
I think the divisions between Americans have become extraordinarily deep.
I’ve conducted polling in New York suggesting that many people would prefer to live in a political arrangement with other blue states rather than red states.
I can envision a future in which states become increasingly divided over abortion, gun control, immigration, and other major issues.
People may increasingly choose to live in states that reflect their political values, and those differences could become even more pronounced.
I’m not suggesting that a civil war is inevitable. But I do believe we need to consider whether a smaller federal government and greater authority for individual states might help preserve the country.
The original constitutional system placed much more emphasis on the states.
Perhaps returning to some of those principles could help us remain united despite our differences.
Newt Gingrich
It seems that with every passing year, states are becoming more distinct in their policies and political cultures.
Before we finish, I want to ask about the midterm elections. What are your instincts?
Matt Towery
I’m paying much more attention to early voting than I did in 2022.
And what I’m seeing in states such as Georgia and Florida concerns me.
Republicans have a significant registration advantage in Florida, but the early vote isn’t reflecting the kind of advantage I would expect.
I’m particularly concerned about independent voters.
If those trends continue, races that Republicans expect to win comfortably could become much closer.
I think Florida’s governor’s race could be very tight, and Georgia could be especially challenging for Republicans.
I’m not predicting a political bloodbath, but the early voting numbers suggest the possibility of a disappointing election night.
Of course, I was wrong in 2022, and I hope I’m wrong this time.
There are also individual races, such as Alaska, where local circumstances could produce very different results.
All politics is still local.
Newt Gingrich
There are so many different currents in this election that I find it difficult to be confident about any prediction.
Matt, we’ve been friends since you were barely out of high school. We’ve campaigned together, and you played an important role in helping build the national Republican majority.
It’s a great pleasure to have this conversation with you.
Your book challenges all of us to ask not just what we think, but how we came to think it.
Thank you for joining me.
Matt Towery
Thank you, Newt. It’s been a pleasure.
About the Guest
Matt Towery is a political analyst, pollster, attorney, nationally syndicated columnist, and former member of the Georgia House of Representatives. He is the CEO of InsiderAdvantage, a polling and political analysis firm, and has provided commentary for national television networks. A longtime associate of Newt Gingrich, Towery was among the early political commentators to recognize Donald Trump’s potential to win the presidency in 2016.
His latest book, The Honoring of Ignorance: The Seven Mirages Destroying America, examines how media narratives, polling, and political messaging influence public understanding of American politics.
Learn more at InsiderAdvantage.com.
Latest from America’s New Majority Project
You can manage your subscription preferences to choose the updates, newsletters, and alerts you want to receive on the website.