The Coalition to Defeat Iran
After spending this week reviewing the Iranian war, I am now convinced President Donald J. Trump is on the edge of an historic victory.
After spending this week reviewing the Iranian war, I am now convinced President Donald J. Trump is on the edge of an historic victory.
The real breakthrough for me came as I reviewed President Trump’s decisions and maneuvers — not from the standpoint of American unilateralism, but from the standpoint of the leader of a remarkable historic coalition. The fact is, he has assembled the largest coalition ever put together in the modern Middle East.
Everyone understands that Israel is an important ally. What is little discussed is the depth of support from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the region. It must be sobering for the Iranian dictatorship to realize that it does not have a single ally willing to challenge the American naval blockade. Slowly, gradually, timidly, our European allies are lining up to help with the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. A great deal of President Trump’s maneuvers against Iran make sense once he is seen as a coalition leader and not just as a unilateral American President.
I spent a lot of the last couple weeks reviewing kinetic options to win the battle of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. As I wrote last week, the administration could consider using the shocking, shattering level of force President Richard Nixon and Secretary Henry Kissinger used against Hanoi and Haiphong in Christmas 1972. (Operation Linebacker II convinced the North Vietnamese to agree to a truce and the freeing of American prisoners of war).
If this were a unilateral American campaign, I could enthusiastically support a more aggressive kinetic campaign. However, it is clear such a campaign would shatter the coalition. Our Arab allies are convinced Iran could still do enormous damage to their oil fields and infrastructure. Coalitions are inherently slower than unilateral campaigns. However, coalitions ultimately bring vastly more power to the fight.
I am as frustrated as everyone else by the pace of talking with the dictatorship. But, having reviewed the correlation of forces and the options available to Trump’s Middle East coalition and the Iranian religiously motivated dictatorship, I think President Trump’s coalition leadership (something almost none of his critics want to acknowledge) is within reach of an enormous historic victory.
The window of opportunity will not stay open forever, so time is the most important resource at play in this struggle. Iran may be under the impression that the U.S. will withdraw after the midterms if Democrats seize control of Congress. There is precedent for this theory. In 1975, the Democratic majority in the Senate blocked critical aid to South Vietnam. This signaled to the Viet Cong that they could invade without fear of American reprisals. Without funding for its defense, the South swiftly collapsed.
History offers yet another important lesson. In the early 2000s, the U.S. failed to stop North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. We are dealing with the consequences of that inaction even today. North Korea regularly threatens the annihilation of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. If Iran is granted the atomic bomb, Hamas or Hezbollah (as proxy terrorist groups of Iran) could destroy almost any city in the Middle East. The threat would not stop there.
It is not unthinkable that the military leaders and clerics of the regime would consider a similar attack on a major U.S. population center. New York, Chicago, or San Francisco could be gone in an instant because American politicians couldn’t muster the willpower to deny Iran the bomb. President Trump has vowed that he will never let this scenario occur.
And if the Iranian dictatorship ultimately proves it is hopelessly committed to a suicidal position, there will be plenty of time for a kinetic campaign of enormous power and effectiveness. Either way, we are on the edge of an astonishing victory for our values and for a safer Middle East.
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