Finally, after billions of dollars in mostly negative advertising, endless rallies, more commercials than any of us can stand, public mud-slinging campaigns, pollsters with limited faith in their own polls, and talking heads who pontificate by contractual obligation, we are down to the last weekend.
I have one strong piece of advice about pre-election analysis, take it with a huge grain of salt. In fact, take it with an entire shaker.
The truth is: None of us know much until the first precincts report.
The reason is simple.
The most decisive factor in elections is who decides to vote.
If a polling firm calls you at home, you can have an opinion without getting out of your chair or off the couch. But voting takes time and effort. Do you care enough to show up, wait in line, and go out of your way — even if it inconveniences you?
One of the people I really pay attention to understand what’s happening over time is Seth Keshel. Seth’s focus isn’t on polling. It is on registration. Like voting, voter registration takes time and effort. Over time, you can sense long patterns of which party is gaining or losing support.
According to Keshel’s studies, the drift away from Democrats and towards Republicans has been steady in most of the country since then-candidate Donald J. Trump came down the long escalator on June 15, 2015.
Keshel recently did a study of Congressman Mike Lawler’s district in New York and reported on a vote so one-sided I could hardly believe it.
He looked at Rockland County and reported “there are 11 precincts in the Ramapo area in which Trump won over 95% of 500 or more votes (28 total precincts with Trump at over 95% of the vote).”
In the town of Ramapo’s 55th precinct, Trump won 987 votes. Kamala Harris earned one. This meant trump had a 99.8% margin. The margin was similar in 2020. But in 2016, the same precinct went 657 votes for Hillary Clinton, and 42 for Trump. So, the precinct changed from being 87.9% for Clinton to almost entirely for Trump.
In fact, Keshel reported that Trump’s margin in the 28 precincts in which he got over 95 percent of the vote, Trump earned 13,217 votes, Harris earned 176, and 30 votes went to other candidates. So, Trump’s margin over those 28 precincts was 97.2%.
I don’t know of any other place in America where Republicans run up 97% margins. The Orthodox and Hasidic Jews have clearly been mobilized by the antisemitic and anti-Israel wing of the Democratic Party. With that kind of support, Congressman Lawler is likely to win again.
Keshel has also been looking at patterns among Hispanic voters. He lives in Arizona, and he reported that Yuma County, which is 66.8%, Latino is voting early. The Republican turnout is up, not down.
I want to stress that Keshel is relying on actual voting records, not polls or complex analysis.
Prepare to settle in Tuesday night and watch the real polls — the only ones that matter — pour in all over the country.
My hunch is that Republicans will do better than people expect, but not as well as Republicans want.
I study history in part because I can explain the past after it has happened easier than I can predict a future which is unknowable.
I will be right there with you as the first precinct numbers come in. Then, I can write about what happened rather than what I thought would happen.
It is going to be a long night or two to get the last contested votes counted. It will be time well spent for maintaining self-government and free society.
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