Why Americans Are Leaving Some States and Flocking to Others
The Data Behind America's Biggest Population Shift
Newt Gingrich Explores the Real Drivers of Interstate Migration with Jack Salmon.
For years, headlines have framed interstate migration as a simple story of red states versus blue states, but the reality is far more complex. In this episode, Newt Gingrich sits down with Jack Salmon, research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, to examine five years of IRS migration data tracking nearly 34 million interstate moves. Their conversation reveals that Americans are making highly practical decisions based on taxes, housing availability, economic opportunity, and the overall cost of building a better life.
The discussion also explores why some of the country's fastest-growing states continue attracting new residents while others struggle with sustained population loss. Beyond politics, Salmon's research points to broader economic freedom, regulatory burdens, and housing supply as the strongest predictors of where Americans choose to live. Together, Newt and Salmon offer an insightful look at what these migration patterns reveal about the future competitiveness of the states, and what policymakers should learn from them.
Listen to the episode below, or scroll down for an edited transcript.
Edited Transcript
This conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.
Newt Gingrich
This week, I wanted to focus on a number that received far less attention than it deserved: the June jobs report. Payroll growth came in at just 57,000 jobs, well below expectations. While one report alone doesn’t tell the whole story, it can signal broader trends. Combined with persistent inflation, slowing job growth creates real challenges for working families.
Coming up, I’m joined by Jack Salmon of the Mercatus Center to discuss his new research examining where Americans are moving—and why.
Jack Salmon
Over the five years I studied, nearly 34 million Americans moved across state lines. In 2023 alone, there were approximately 6.7 million interstate moves, making internal migration one of the defining characteristics of the American economy.
Newt Gingrich
Which states are seeing the largest gains and losses?
Jack Salmon
In raw numbers, Florida gained the most residents while California experienced the largest net loss. But when we adjust for population size, the rankings change. Idaho, South Carolina, Delaware, Montana, and Florida lead the country in migration growth. The largest population losses relative to size occurred in New York, Alaska, Illinois, California, and Hawaii.
Newt Gingrich
Why did you choose to study five years of migration instead of just a single year?
Jack Salmon
Five years allows us to identify long-term trends instead of reacting to one unusual year. It also captures migration before, during, and after the pandemic, providing a much clearer picture of what is driving these decisions over time.
Newt Gingrich
Many people assume taxes are the primary reason people leave states like New York or California. Does your research support that?
Jack Salmon
Taxes are one of the strongest predictors, but they’re only part of the story. High-income earners are particularly sensitive to tax policy, and IRS data allows us to see not only where people move but where income moves as well. States losing high earners are also losing significant economic activity.
Newt Gingrich
Are there other factors that consistently influence migration?
Jack Salmon
Absolutely. Housing supply is a major factor. States that build enough housing to keep prices affordable continue attracting new residents. Economic freedom also matters. States with lighter regulation, flexible labor markets, and lower barriers to employment tend to perform much better.
Newt Gingrich
So lawmakers should think beyond taxes alone?
Jack Salmon
Yes. My research points to three major priorities: maintain a competitive tax system, encourage abundant housing construction, and create an environment where businesses and workers can succeed with fewer unnecessary regulations.
Newt Gingrich
That suggests Americans are carefully evaluating where they can build the best quality of life.
Jack Salmon
Exactly. People respond to opportunity. They compare taxes, regulations, housing affordability, and job availability. States compete with one another, and Americans are increasingly willing to vote with their feet.
Newt Gingrich
Regulation can sometimes be just as important as taxes.
Jack Salmon
I believe that’s true. Excessive licensing requirements, permitting delays, and regulatory burdens increase costs, limit opportunity, and discourage both workers and businesses from relocating.
Newt Gingrich
Ultimately, policymakers need to understand that Americans are paying attention. Families and businesses are making thoughtful decisions about where they can prosper.
Jack Salmon
That’s exactly what the migration data shows.
Newt Gingrich
Jack, thank you for joining me. Your research offers an important perspective on one of the most significant trends shaping America’s future.
About the Guest
Jack Salmon is a Gibbs Scholar and Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, where he specializes in fiscal policy, federal budgets, taxation, and economic growth. He previously served as the Director of Policy Research at the Philanthropy Roundtable and has conducted research for the Cato Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Salmon frequently publishes in leading media outlets like The Hill, Business Insider, and National Review, and has testified before Congress on issues regarding inflation and national debt. An alumnus of King's College London, his academic work heavily focuses on how government spending, tax structures, and regulatory burdens impact state-level migration and overall macroeconomic health.
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