President Trump, Iran, and the Hinge of History

For the sake of America’s (and the world’s) safety, every element of American power must be brought to bear immediately to win the Battle of the Persian Gulf.

On Nov. 3, the American people will vote. This date is the hinge of history.

The result will have an enormous impact.

If President Donald J. Trump and the Republicans win, the reform movement that has been dramatically changing the government, transforming the establishment, and creating a new framework in foreign policy and national security will continue to build momentum. With another two years working with an even more cooperative Republican Congress - after a stunning, historic Republican off-year victory - President Trump will be able to move a lot of executive orders into law, making them much harder for future presidents to change. Furthermore, all the research into fraud, waste, and incompetence will lead to a 2027-2028 cycle of reform that will rival any time in American history.

However, if the Democrats win this fall, it is clear from statements by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries that the number of cabinet-level and presidential impeachment efforts, investigations, hostile congressional hearings, and acts of obstruction will lead to gridlock. It will be and all-out effort designed to grind down the MAGA reform movement.

The key to Republicans winning is the affordability issue - specifically the price of gasoline. Gasoline is an especially powerful signal because virtually everyone stands at the pump filling up their cars. They see the price go up and it makes them frightened (can they continue to afford it?) and angry (why haven’t the political leaders solved this?).

As a simple proxy for analyzing the 2026 campaign, the clear bellwether will be the price of gasoline on Labor Day (Sept. 7). If the price is today’s $4.51 or higher, the Republicans will have an incredibly hard time winning and may face a blowout -despite all the redistricting efforts and their huge campaign war chest.

But, if the price has dropped to the $3.50 range or below -and people believe it is still falling -then there is a good chance the Republicans’ advantages (President Trump’s strength as a campaigner, the power of the Republican-Democrat contrast, and the weight of GOP resources) could lead to an historic off-year victory.

So, the price of gasoline could swing the hinge of history toward a President Trump-led future or to Democratic leadership frustration, obstruction, investigations, and impeachments.

Normally, solving the gasoline price problem would be simple: Get the gulf states to pump a lot more oil on top of the great expansion in American oil and gas production. But the choked-off Strait of Hormuz is dragging up prices everywhere.

This brings us to the real-life, serious, American challenge - which is enormously more important than the Republicans’ political-electoral challenge. The war in Iran has caused oil and gas prices to rise, but we didn’t get into this war over oil and gas. We entered this conflict to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons and stop its 40-year reign as the world’s greatest funder of terrorism - once and for all.

Both challenges simply have the same solution.

Getting oil from the Middle East to reduce gas prices and defeating the world’s largest source of terror both require eliminating Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

Similarly, both challenges have the same failure state - collapsing and accepting a terrible deal from Iran which leaves the Iranian theocratic dictatorship in a position to dominate the Gulf. Gas prices will remain high. And it will rebuild its nuclear weapon and missile programs and continue to fund terrorism worldwide.

President Trump’s May 11 press conference made clear that he is choosing the path of reopening the Persian Gulf - and if necessary, destroying the Iranian dictatorship (which has chanted “death to America” in its parliament for nearly a half-century).

I think his comments on Iran are so important that I have included them at the end of this column.

Three times, President Trump asserted, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

President Trump went on to promise, “We’re going to have a complete victory.”

The centers of gravity in the President’s desire to disarm the Iranian dictatorship are the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz, and the support of the American people. Other targets, such as Teheran or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, are far less important in this phase of the war than winning the Battle of the Persian Gulf and building support for the effort among the American people.

In another part of American history, President Abraham Lincoln succeeded in sustaining support for the Civil War in the North despite tremendous casualties (the most of any American war) and deep frustration with incompetent generals. It is a brilliant and sobering example of the importance of understanding, communicating with, and convincing the American people that a particular strategy is necessary even if it is painful. President Trump and his team should study Lincoln carefully and apply these principles as rapidly as possible to convince the American people that this war against a dictatorship - which wants to use nuclear weapons against our cities - is a necessary and unavoidable effort. If we want to save millions of Americans in the future from an Iranian induced catastrophe, we must deal with it now.

Due to the intermingled nature of our two big challenges, the key to rebuilding support among the American people is the price of gasoline. It is hard to win the argument that long-term pain must be avoided if people believe the short-term pain is unsustainable.

So, to solve first the American problem and then the Republican political problem, we must win the Battle of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. It is that simple. If the President is determined to end the Iranian nuclear program, as he outlined in his recent press conference, he has no choice but to win the Battle of the Persian Gulf, restore the free flow of oil from the Middle East to the world, and prevent Iran from ever regaining its control over the world economy.

For the sake of America’s (and the world’s) safety, every element of American power must be brought to bear immediately to win the Battle of the Persian Gulf.

Then the hinge of history will swing our way on Nov. 3.

***

President Trump’s statement on Iran in his May 11, 2026 press conference is so clear and decisive that every American, Iranian, (and interested citizens around the world) should read and think about it:

“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They’re very dangerous. They’re very volatile. It’s a terrible thing that’s happened over there.

“They’ve killed 42,000 people in the last two months. Forty-two thousand. At least, that’s what we know of. Forty-two thousand people. They killed numerous people over the last week. But they killed 42,000 people a month ago, a month and a half ago.

“They were unarmed protesters, not at all violent protesters. And they started taking them out, shooting them. So we’re not going to let them.

“Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Can’t have it.

“And if they did have it, the Middle East would be gone, Israel would be gone, and they’d hit Europe probably next. We’re doing a service to the world. And this has gone on for 47 years.

…..

“It’s a very simple plan. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won’t have a nuclear weapon.

“And they didn’t want to go that far. If you can believe it, they didn’t. How stupid.

“Are they stupid people? They didn’t want to believe it. They think that, well, I’ll get tired of this, or I’ll get bored, or I’ll have some pressure. But there’s no pressure.

“There’s no pressure at all. We’re going to have a complete victory. We’ve already, in theory, had a complete victory from the military standpoint.

…..

“The plan is very simple. You know, in war, you have to change. You have to be flexible.

….

“The lunatics want to fight till the end. You know, it will be a very - it’ll be a very quick fight. But I call them - you have - just like our country, we have lunatics, too.

“We have - I call them lunatics. I call them stupid people, too. But in Iran, they have the moderates that are dying to make a deal, and then you have the lunatics.

“And I guess they’re a little bit afraid of the lunatics, but - and why not? The level of ferocity for protests - you know, the people are watching, and they want to go out on the streets. They have no weapons. They have no guns.”

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