Newt talks with David Winston and Myra Miller of the Winston Group, about the 2026 midterm elections. Inflation and the economy remain the central issue for voters. They discuss how war-driven spikes in gas prices may be seen as temporary, potentially buying the Trump administration time if voters expect prices to fall once the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions ease. Turning to party dynamics, they describe the growing importance of independents, whose share of the electorate rose from 27% in 2020 to 34% in 2024 and now exceeds at least one major party in many competitive states. Historical swings show how dramatically independents can shift outcomes. David and Myra argue that independents are becoming an “existential threat” to both parties and that their voting is driven primarily by economic concerns, especially cost of living. Looking ahead to 2026, they recommend that every Republican campaign adopt two core strategies: a clear economic message that educates voters on the benefits of the “Big Beautiful Bill” and a specific plan to win independents, recognizing that an effective independent strategy is inseparable from a strong economic strategy.
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